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Immigration Surge Projected to Boost US GDP by $7 Trillion, Wall Street Reacts Positively

WASHINGTON, DC – The surge in immigration to the United States has ignited a firestorm of debate among politicians nationwide and stirred apprehension among various segments of the population. However, amidst this discord, there’s a surprising consensus of optimism prevailing on Wall Street.

In a recent report, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a staggering $7 trillion injection into the gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade due to immigration. This analysis factored in the recent uptick in immigration figures.

The CBO’s findings prompted a flurry of analysis among investment bank economists, who scrambled to assess the impact of these newcomers on labor force dynamics and consumer spending. Notably, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. revised its near-term economic growth forecasts upwards, echoing similar sentiments expressed by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA.

“Immigration isn’t just a highly charged social and political issue; it’s a significant macroeconomic factor,” remarked Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc, in a recent client note. She emphasized that few advanced economies are reaping the benefits of immigration as profoundly as the US, with migration playing a pivotal role in the country’s growth narrative over the past few years.

Economists at Morgan Stanley, including Sam Coffin and Ellen Zentner, pointed out this month that accelerated population growth fueled by immigration is likely to result in more robust employment and population estimates than previously anticipated. However, they cautioned that the full extent of these effects might not be adequately captured by official data sources.

Determining the precise scale of foreign-born arrivals poses a challenge, given that many enter the country without proper documentation. Nevertheless, CBO statisticians leveraged data from US Customs and Border Patrol to project a higher net immigration figure, as revealed in analysis by Morgan Stanley.

Goldman Sachs estimated immigration levels at around 2.5 million in 2023, a stark contrast to the 1.6 million suggested by changes in the foreign-born population reported in the official household survey by the Census Bureau.

Despite the buoyant outlook among economists, sentiments on the campaign trail paint a different picture, particularly amidst a surge in undocumented immigrants entering the US through the southern border, which has exacerbated political tensions. According to a recent Gallup poll, the proportion of Americans viewing immigration as the most pressing issue facing the nation has reached a record high, tracing back four decades.

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